This Won’t End Well For Democrats in 2024
President Biden is expected to announce his re-election campaign this week. Here’s why it’s wrong for D’s to sign on.
By all accounts, President Biden will officially announce his re-election campaign with a video this week.
Not an event.
A video.
Kind of deflating.
There are many reasons why The Moderate Democrat opposes the Biden-Harris ticket for renomination. Democrats can do better.
Age, health, and mental acuity. It’s hard to get past the stumbles and confusion we see from President Biden. He is already the oldest president ever. He would be 86 at the end of the second term. I keep thinking that both my parents were vital people when they were President Biden’s age. On their 86th birthdays, each was dead.
Electability. Last summer, the NYT/Siena College Poll found that 64 percent of Democrats wanted a new nominee for president in 2024. While time has passed since that poll, we saw two other interesting polls in the past few days. First, the FiveThirtyEight.com website, which aggregates polls, reports that just over 42 percent of voters approve of Joe Biden’s handling of the presidency while nearly 53 percent of voters disapprove. To make matters worse, the second poll we saw measures the likelihood of voters casting ballots for Biden versus Trump in the case where the voters dislike both men. Among voters who dislike both, many more would vote for Trump over Biden. (I just wish I could find this poll and cite it!)
The Harris Factor. The likelihood of Joe Biden finishing a second term is low. He might die. He might resign from health concerns. Or health concerns among Americans might drive him from office. These paths lead to one place: Kamala Harris, 47th president of the United States. This would be a disaster. Vice President Harris has consistently shown no chops to be president. She cannot manage her staff. She does not speak with authority. She would be unacceptable to the nation. To avoid ending up with Harris, 2024 voters might shun the entire Biden-Harris ticket.
The Trump Factor. Former President Donald Trump is polling well to become the Republican nominee and could well be elected to a second term as the 47th president. (Only Grover Cleveland managed the same feat of non-consecutive terms, serving as the 22nd and the 24th president.) Trump is nearly as old as Biden, but handles aging with sheer force. He would eviscerate a Biden who hides in the Rose Garden. He would be unstoppable in assailing every Biden weakness. Such as these:
Biden’s Foreign Policy Blunders. It won’t take much work for Trump to remind voters of the deadly and embarrassing ham-handed withdrawal from Afghanistan. As it’s in the news constantly these days, the threat of a U.S.-China cold war or a hot war is on the minds of voters. Biden is not driving enough investment into the military to offset China’s military expansion plans. Nobody wants war over Taiwan (except China) no more than anyone wanted war over Ukraine (except Russia). North Korea is developing missiles that can strike at the U.S. as well as a satellite to watch over the U.S. With the notable exception of a coalition to support Ukraine, Biden’s foreign policy, led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, is old school, comforting, and ineffective. The nation leads a world adrift. U.S. prominence abroad is fizzling before our eyes.
Biden’s Domestic Record. Inflation. Electric vehicle rollouts. Southern border. These three alone have voters on edge. Biden has not adequately addressed the American people on any of these policies (if that’s the right word). And Harris, as border czar, has been nothing but a disappearing act. I’ve watched careful development of electric vehicles since the 1980s. But just when EVs need a champion who understands the nation’s fears about change, we have a so-called car guy who cannot speak about car fears. This won’t kill electric cars, but it could help defeat Biden-Harris.
Hunter Biden’s Laptop. The media steadfastly mocked and otherwise ignored the news about First Son Hunter Biden’s trove of files on the MacBook he dropped off for repair and never reclaimed, allowing it to fall into Republican hands. The media will be forced to report on the files indicating corrupt business practices by Hunter, his uncle James Biden, and his father, a.k.a. “The big guy.” This story is destined to gain prominence in the campaign, and it will damage President Biden. The Republicans have plenty of facts now, and they will eagerly deploy them. This is essentially the opposition research brief against Biden, except that it’s all out in the open. It will be weaponized.
The Moderate Democrat supported Joe Biden for election as president in 2020. This year, he’s vulnerable because of his record, his corrupt family businesses, and the vigor of a Trump challenge compared to Biden’s own stamina.
Absent a challenge from another Democrat, this does not end well for Democrats in 2024.
A note about missing hyperlinks: I have written and edited these first few posts in The Moderate Democrat using my iPhone paired to a Bluetooth keyboard. The iOS software for Substack makes it difficult to insert hyperlinks into the text. When I return to my trusty Mac this week, I’ll re-edit these posts and add in hyperlinks. Until then, my apologies. — DTD